Budget falls short of public expectations as warnings grow over Welsh services

Most people believe the UK Government’s Budget fails to tackle major problems, according to polling, as Cardiff University researchers warn of difficult spending choices for Welsh public services.

A survey by More in Common and UCL Policy Lab found that 60% of respondents believed the Budget “tinkers with small things around the edges”, while just 14% thought it addressed “big structural issues”.

The survey of 1,749 people across Great Britain also found that 43% considered the Budget too focused on the short term, compared with 17% who believed it struck the right balance. The findings reflect opinion across Britain rather than Wales alone.

Separately, Cardiff University’s Wales Fiscal Analysis team warned that higher inflation would erode the value of the Welsh Government’s funding, putting pressure on services despite additional money announced in the Budget.

The polling and funding concerns were raised by Plaid Cymru MPs during Welsh Questions in the House of Commons at Westminster on Wednesday, November 4.

The party’s Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts MP, accused Labour of failing to deliver the scale of change voters had been promised.

“Does the Secretary of State understand why so many people in Wales feel this Budget falls far short of the promises talked up by his Government?” she asked.

Cardiff University’s analysis projects that Welsh Government day-to-day funding will remain broadly flat after inflation in 2027–28. This would mean that increasing spending on some services would require reductions elsewhere.

Researchers calculated that increasing NHS spending in line with its historical average of 3.6% above inflation could require cuts averaging around 3.8% across the rest of the Welsh budget, including local government, education and transport.

That figure represents a possible spending scenario, rather than cuts that have already been agreed. The analysis also identifies a £46 million reduction in capital funding across the current and next financial years.

Ynys Môn MP Llinos Medi challenged ministers over the findings, warning that councils and public services faced difficult choices.

“Those are not my words, but those of Cardiff University, who say Wales now faces difficult choices, including cuts to local authorities like on Ynys Môn,” she said.

The Secretary of State responded: “I genuinely don’t know where Plaid Cymru is getting these numbers from.”

The exchanges also covered the future of school milk provision and support for families.

Ann Davies MP urged the Secretary of State to “check his facts” following claims about the Welsh Government’s plans for free school milk.

The Welsh Government is consulting on whether to replace the existing School Milk Subsidy Scheme or discontinue it when current delivery arrangements end in March 2027.

The scheme currently provides free milk for children in Reception to Year 2 and subsidised milk for Years 3 to 6. No final decision has been announced.

Milk would remain available through school breakfasts and lunches if the dedicated scheme ended, although access would depend on children participating in those services. The consultation closes on January 4, 2027.

Ms Davies also asked whether families receiving payments through the Welsh Government’s Cynnal child payment pilot would be protected from losing other benefit support.

Responding, Stephen Kinnock said tackling child poverty was a shared priority with the devolved government.

He said the UK Government was “open to exploring the Welsh Government’s Cynnal pilot” and would continue discussions on the detail.