A new opinion poll in Wales for the Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections next year has put Plaid Cymru in lead with 30% of the vote share with support for Labour falling to a historic low of 18%.

The Barn Cymru poll, conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, reveals a dramatic shift in the political landscape just one year ahead of the next Welsh parliamentary vote. If repeated in next year’s election, this would mark Labour’s worst performance in Wales since devolution in 1999.

If it were to become reality, figures suggest the most likely outcome would be a government led by Plaid Cymru, as a minority government doing individual deals to pass legislation and budgets, or in some kind of formal arrangement with Labour and/or the Lib Dems and Greens.

The full voting intention breakdown from the YouGov MRP model is as follows:

Plaid Cymru: 30%

Reform UK: 25%

Labour: 18%

Conservatives: 13%

Liberal Democrats: 7%

Greens: 5%

Other: 2%

The poll positions Plaid Cymru, under leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, as the frontrunner and suggests a major realignment in Welsh politics, with Reform UK also gaining significant ground.

In a statement responding to the poll, a Plaid Cymru spokesperson said:

“More and more people are turning to Plaid Cymru as the only party standing up for Wales’s interests, offering a credible pro-Wales government in 2026.

“The Labour party has betrayed those who put it into power at Westminster, and Eluned Morgan has gone along with it, proving she is no more than an apologist for Keir Starmer.

“As voters turn their backs on Labour, the choice in the 2026 Welsh General Election is clear. A Plaid Cymru government led by Rhun ap Iorwerth with a positive vision and not afraid to stand up to Labour, or Reform UK led by work-shy ex-Tory Nigel Farage whose real interest lies in cosying up to Donald Trump.”

“The spokesperson also accused Labour of taking Welsh voters for granted, particularly steelworkers, pensioners, business owners, and vulnerable communities, and vowed that Plaid would offer “a fairer, more ambitious Wales.”

Labour has yet to respond publicly to the findings, but the party now faces mounting pressure to reconnect with its traditional base in Wales, long considered one of its heartlands.

With just under a year to go until the Senedd vote, this poll raises serious questions about the future direction of Welsh politics and the ability of established parties to respond to changing public sentiment.

Photo: Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth.