Early estimates suggest Bangor would have a Conservative MP after the next General Election, if proposals for the new UK Parliamentary map of Wales are approved.
Proposals for a new UK Parliamentary map of Wales would see the number of Welsh MPs cut by 20% from 40 to 32.
The new plans could pave the way for major changes to the Welsh political landscape, splitting some constituencies that have been in place for decades. Other constituencies will be scrapped completely and integrated with neighbouring areas.
The existing constituency of Arfon will be abolished and Bangor would join Aberconwy, which includes Llandudno, Conwy and Betwys-y-Coed, The area of Pentir, including Penrhosgarnedd (past Ysbyty Gwynedd) and Treborth, would join Caernarfon, Porthmadog, Barmouth and Pwllheli to form the Dwyfor Meirionnydd constituency.
Electoral Calculus, a quantitative political consultancy, well-known for its website of election predictions and data, predict of the new parliamentary seats in Wales are: Labour 18 (-4), Conservative 12 (-2), Plaid Cymru 2 (-2). So all parties take a hit, as eight seats disappear in Wales overall.
The last serving Conservative MP for Bangor was Wyn Roberts, when Bangor was part of the former Conwy constituency, serving from 1970 until his retirement in 1997. Mr Roberts was replaced by Bangor born Betty Williams (Labour) who resided as MP for Conwy from 1997 – 2010.
Bangor became part of Arfon, created by the Welsh Boundary Commission in time for the 2010 general election, won and held by Plaid Cymru ever since.
Arfon is the smallest constituency on the mainland of Great Britain by electorate, and larger only than the two Scottish island constituencies, Na h-Eileanan an Iar and Orkney and Shetland. The total population as of the 2011 census was 60,573.
The Arfon division of Caernarvonshire was a former UK Parliament constituency, which existed from 1885 until 1918. Before 1885 and after 1918 the area was part of the Caernarvonshire constituency. The Liberal MP William Rathbone represented the Arfon seat until 1895, followed by fellow Liberal William Jones. Upon the death of Mr Jones, Griffith C. Rees, for the Liberal Party, was elected unopposed at the subsequent by-election.
The reduction in MPs represents the “most significant change to Wales’s constituencies in a century”, the Commission said.
Under rules set out in the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986, each constituency proposed by the Boundary Commission for Wales must contain between 69,724 and 77,062 electors. The only exception to this rule is Ynys Môn, which recently became a protected constituency and so will see no changes to its name, designation or boundaries.
The Boundary Commission for Wales has opened an eight-week consultation on how constituency boundaries could be changed and is available here: https://www.bcw-reviews.org.uk/
